Saturday, March 30, 2013

2013 Baseball Predictions

Tomorrow, the 2013 Major League Baseball season begins.  Of course, those of us who followed the World Baseball Classic have already seen some excellent, high-pressure games this month.  It will be hard to top the excitement of the 2012 season.  Highlights included Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers winning the Triple Crown, breakout seasons by Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, and the surprising success of the Orioles and Athletics (even the Pirates were in the race most of the year!)

One of the biggest changes for this year is that the Houston Astros have moved to the American League, giving each league 15 teams, and therefore interleague play throughout the season.  2012 was a great year for baseball.  Will 2013 be even better?  Time will tell.  Now it's time for my projections for this season.

American League
East: Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox
Central: Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Twins, Indians
West: Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners, Astros

National League
East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins
Central: Reds, Pirates, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs
West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres

Postseason
Wild Card Games:
AL: Blue Jays beat Rangers
NL: Giants beat Pirates
Division Series:
AL: Rays beat Angels, 3-1
Tigers beat Blue Jays, 3-2
NL: Nationals over Giants, 3-0
Reds beat Dodgers, 3-2
League Championship Series:
AL: Rays beat Tigers, 4-2
NL: Nationals beat Reds, 4-3
World Series:
Nationals beat Rays, 4-2

Awards
MVP
AL: Mike Trout, Angels
NL: Joey Votto, Reds
Cy Young
AL: Justin Verlander, Tigers
NL: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Enjoy the season.  Play ball!

Friday, January 4, 2013

NFL Playoffs

Tomorrow marks the beginning of the playoffs.  Before I get into my picks, I wanted to look back on predictions that I made before the season started.  For the Super Bowl, I had the Steelers beating the 49ers.  Unfortunately, Pittsburgh did not make the playoffs.  Overall, I only got seven out of the 12 playoff teams correct.  My worst prediction was having the Kansas City Chiefs win their division, when in reality they finished with the worst record in the league.

But enough about my bad predictions in the past.  It's time to make a new batch of bad predictions, as follows:

First Round:
Bengals 27, Texans 21
Packers 31, Vikings 10
Ravens 20, Colts 19
Seahawks 27, Redskins 20

Second Round:
Broncos 24, Bengals 13
Ravens 21, Patriots 17
Seahawks 20, Falcons 17
49ers 30, Packers 20

Conference Championships:
Broncos 17, Ravens 14
Seahawks 28, 49ers 27

Super Bowl:
Seahawks 24, Broncos 21

Enjoy the games!

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Baseball Hall of Fame

It's that time of year again.  That's right, the voting for the baseball Hall of Fame is going on now and the results will be released in early January.  I'm a big baseball fan and consider the Hall of Fame to be one of the most interesting aspects of the game.  First, a little background:

The Hall of Fame is located in Cooperstown, New York, which is where the sport is said to have been invented in 1839 by future Civil War hero Abner Doubleday.  (In actuality, Doubleday was nowhere near Cooperstown at the time, and baseball basically evolved from other ball-and-bat games.  But the powers-that-be wanted an "All-American" origin story, and they weren't about to let facts get in the way.)  Anyway, the Hall of Fame was established and dedicated in that quiet town in 1939.  I had the opportunity to visit there one time about 15 years ago and had an amazing time.  In addition to plaques for all the honorees, there are seemingly endless displays of rare and interesting artifacts from the game's history.  Anyone who is a baseball fan owes it to themselves to make the trip at least once.

Every year, elections are held to choose new members of the Hall of Fame.  Voting is done by professional sportswriters who have covered baseball for at least ten years.  Players must be retired for at least five years to be eligible.  Voters can select up to ten players out of the list of about forty candidates.  Those who get a "Yes" vote on 75 percent of the ballots are then inducted into the Hall of Fame at a ceremony in July.  Those who get listed on between 5 and 75 percent of the ballot will stay on the ballot next year (up to a maximum of fifteen years of eligibility).  Those who fall below five percent are permanently dropped from the ballot, though there is a Veterans Committee to consider players who did not get elected the conventional way.

This year's ballot is considered to be perhaps the most controversial ever.  Several of the greatest players on the ballot have been linked to steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs).  The two top candidates, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, have on-field accomplishments and statistics that place them among the all-time legends of the sport.  Absent these accusations, both would easily be inducted.  There are also several other first-time candidates who deserve recognition.  Overall, this year should be a grand celebration of some truly great baseball talent.

However, the issue of steroids has reared its ugly head.  Most of the current candidates played during the so-called "steroid era" of the 1990s.  At that time, home run records fell and accusations started to be whispered concerning almost anyone who developed a power swing.  The problem was, there was little or no drug testing in the sport at that time.  A few players have come forward in subsequent years to either admit their own use or point the finger at former teammates.

In actuality, it is pretty much impossible to know who did what and when in regards to cheating.  This is not stopping certain voters from declaring themselves to be judge and jury on the issue, refusing to vote for certain candidates on the basis that they "just know" who is guilty.  I think that this is grossly unfair to the players and to the institution of the Hall of Fame.  Please note: I am not condoning cheating, or trying to sweep the issue under the rug with an "everybody does it" attitude, but instead dealing with the reality of limited knowledge and trying not to turn the entire process into a steroid witch hunt.  I feel that it is important for the Hall of Fame to recognize the best players in baseball history.  To exclude those who dominated the sport for extended periods of time based on rumor and suspicion would be doing the sport a grave injustice.

If I had a vote, I would try as much as possible to base my decisions on actual on-field issues.  Since voters can vote for a maximum of ten players, these would be my choices, in order:

1. Barry Bonds (all-time home run king)
2. Roger Clemens (perhaps the greatest pitcher of the past 50 years)
3. Craig Biggio (3,000 hits and played key defensive positions)
4. Mike Piazza (the greatest hitting catchers of all time)
5. Tim Raines (second greatest base stealer ever)
6. Alan Trammell (helped revolutionize the shortstop position, paving way for Ripken, Jeter, etc)
7. Sammy Sosa (great home run hitter whose only connection to steroids seems to be his daring to not speak perfect English in front of a Congressional committee)
8. Jeff Bagwell (great hitter whose career was shortened by injuries)
9. Curt Schilling (helped pitch two teams to world championships)
10. Edgar Martinez (feared hitter who played mostly as a designated hitter)

In addition, there are a few more players on the ballot who I think deserve induction, but I don't have room for them on the ballot:
Rafael Palmeiro (500 home runs and 3,000 hits, but did test positive for PEDs)
Mark McGwire (lots of home runs, but other parts of the game were weak)
Fred McGriff (good power and defense)

I wish there was room on the ballot to vote for two long-time Yankees: Don Mattingly and Bernie Williams.  Unfortunately, each is likely to appear on fewer than five percent of the ballots, and therefore be removed from future consideration.

Finally, here is my prediction for what the actual results will be:

Craig Biggio and Jack Morris will each get about 80 percent of the vote and be inducted.  Bonds, Clemens, and Piazza will each be between 40 and 50 percent and have to wait until next year.  Other deserving candidates won't come close.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Christmas Music

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving.  A few weeks ago, I wrote about the importance of not starting the Christmas celebrations too early.  My main complaint was that some radio stations switched over to 24-hour Christmas music in mid-November.

Now that it's December, I am able to focus on the upcoming celebration.  I love almost everything about Christmas, including the music.  Lately I have been listening to a lot of Christmas music.  So I wanted to share a few thoughts on the topic:

Variety
The problem with Christmas music is that there is both too many songs, and too few songs.  What I mean by that is that many musicians over the years have released albums of holiday music.  I have no doubt that these are easy money-makers for the artists and the record labels.  Usually, the album will have one original Christmas-related song and the rest is covers of holiday classics.

As a result, there are dozens of versions of certain songs.  When you listen to the Christmas music stations for an extended period of time, you will hear multiple versions of such songs as "Jingle Bells" and "Santa Claus is Coming to Town".  (There is even a cover version of Wham's "Last Christmas").  In general, this can be interesting as each singer puts their own unique spin on the song.  However, there are certain songs which I feel have already been performed perfectly, and can not be improved upon.  The following is a list of examples of what I consider to be "definitive versions" of certain classics:

"The Christmas Song (Chestnuts Roasting on An Open Fire)" - Nat King Cole
"White Christmas" - Bing Crosby
"It's The Most Wonderful Time of the Year" - Andy Williams
"A Holly Jolly Christmas" - Burl Ives
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus" - The Jackson 5 (though the Mellencamp version is good)
"The Little Drummer Boy" - Bob Seger
"Joy To The World" - Three Dog Night (just kidding!)

I feel that there is no need for new versions of the above songs. 

Overplayed Songs
Two songs that get a lot of air time are by former Beatles.  These are "Happy Xmas (War Is Over)" by John Lennon and "Wonderful Christmas time" by Paul McCartney.  It seems that radio stations give these mediocre songs more attention due to their connection to the Beatles.  I would be happy to discard these two permanently.

Strange Lyrics
Sometimes, a line from a famous song will strike me as strange.  A later verse of "Here Comes Santa Claus" says "let's give thanks to the Lord above cause Santa Claus comes tonight".  In light of the so-called War on Christmas and some Christians feeling that Santa gets in the way of celebrating the birth of Christ, I find this lyric to be an odd combination.

Back in the 1980s, a large group of artists gathered under the name Band Aid to record "Do They Know It's Christmas".  The proceeds from this song have gone to famine relief in Africa.  There is a definite tone of guilt-inducement and sarcasm in this song, which chides westerners for being too comfortable while others are suffering.  However, it is easy to miss that message until Bono belts out the line "Well tonight thank God it's them instead of you!".  It certainly comes as a surprise and sounds out of place on a Christmas song, but hopefully gets the point across.

A Disturbing Song
Finally, I want to mention a song that gets a lot of play, but probably for the wrong reasons.  It is called "Baby It's Cold Outside".  This song is a duet with a man and a woman singing alternating lines.

The first problem is that this song is not a Christmas song.  The only way slight connection is that it is based on cold weather, and Christmas is in December.  For that reason alone, it should not be considered a Christmas song.  But the much bigger problem is the theme of the song.  After enjoying an evening together, the woman mentions that she needs to go home.  Each time she does so, the man counters with a reason why she needs to stay the night.  In spite of her continued protests, he will not let her leave.  It can be a bit uncomfortable.  We refer to this as the "Date Rape Song".  Very disturbing.

Rather than end on such a down note, I will leave you with the lyrics to a timeless Christmas tune:

Jingle Bells, Batman smells
Robin laid an egg
The Batmobile lost a wheel
And the Joker got away - hey!

I learned this song many years ago from other kids at school, and now my kids have had that same experience.  It is heart-warming to know that the true classics will always survive.

Merry Christmas!

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Enjoy Thanksgiving

As I'm writing this, it is the night before Thanksgiving.  In fact, we just watched "A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving" with the kids.  (A great special, even though it's disturbing that Woodstock eats turkey at the end.)

Last weekend, we were in the car and discovered that two local radio stations had already switched to 24-hour Christmas music.  I find this to be highly inappropriate; Thanksgiving should be celebrated and enjoyed before people's attention shifts to Christmas.  To add to the problem, each year the stations that do this switch back to regular programming at some point on December 25th; they don't even celebrate Christmas in its entirety.  I think that this is a symptom of a larger problem that we have in our society.  We are too quick to move on to the next "big thing".  Anyone who tries to buy a bathing suit in August is familiar with this phenomenon - the stores have already switched to autumn and winter clothes.  We are losing our ability to live in and enjoy the moment.

As we celebrate Thanksgiving tomorrow, I urge everyone to take a deep breath and savor the present.  There will still be plenty of time to decorate, shop and get ready for Christmas.  Just don't lose one holiday in the rush to get to then next one.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Baseball thoughts

Now that baseball's regular season is over, it's time for some observations:

Triple Crown vs MVP
Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers led the American League in batting average, home runs, and RBIs.  This Triple Crown had not been accomplished since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967.Even though it's really a statistical fluke, it's a great event that I didn't think I would see in my lifetime.

The big debate in baseball circles is whether Cabrera will win the Most Valuable Player award.  The other main candidate is Mike Trout of the Angels.  Trout is a rookie who was still in the minor leagues for the first month of the season, but nevertheless managed to put up impressive numbers.  In addition to strong batting numbers, Trout is a dominant base stealer and plays excellent defense in center field (Cabrera is a below average third baseman).

Another factor that voters will consider is the teams' performance.  Personally, I think that the MVP should go to the best player, regardless of how his team did, but many voters disagree.  The Tigers are in the playoffs, due to winning the relatively weak Central division.  The Angels had a better record than the Tigers, but missed the playoffs.  For some reason, many will give Cabrera credit for this.  (Not to mention that one of the reasons that the Angels missed the playoffs was their poor start, while they kept Trout in the minors).

Although both are fine candidates, I would vote for Cabrera.  To me, the feat of winning the Triple Crown puts him over the top.  I also predict that Cabrera will win the award.

Playoffs
This is the first year that MLB had  "Wild Card Pay-In Games" in each league, pitting the top two non-division winners in a one game playoff to advance to the Division Series.  As I've stated before, I really like this idea - it puts more importance on winning your division.

The Play-In games were yesterday, with the Orioles beating the Rangers and the Cardinals topping the Braves.  The Cardinals-Braves game had some controversy due to an umpire's questionable calling of the Infield Fly Rule in the 8th inning.  I guess MLB saw all the publicity that the NFL got from the Packers-Seahawks Hail Mary ruling, and wanted in on that action.

Preseason Prediction Review
Back in April, I posted my predictions, which you can see on the blog.  I got four out of the six division winners right (Yankees, Tigers, Nationals and Giants).  The two others that I predicted to win divisons (Rangers and Cardinals) ended up as wild card teams.  Overall, not too bad.  My origianl World Series prediction was for the Yankees to beat the Giants.  I am now revising that prediction, as you will see below.

Playoff Predictions
Finally, it's time for my often inaccurate predictions!

Remaining teams in order of my preference for them winning the World Series:
1. Yankees
2. Nationals (have never even been to the World Series, even going back to their days as the Montreal Expos)
3. Orioles
4. Tigers
5. Reds
6. Athletics
7. Giants
8. Cardinals (they just won it last year)

Predictions:
Yankees over Orioles in 5
Athletics over Tigers in 5
Nationals over Cardinals in 4
Giants over Reds in 5

Athletics over Yankees in 6
Nationals over Giants in 7

World Series: Nationals over Athletics in 6

Enjoy the games!

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

NFL Predictions - 2012

Another NFL season is upon us, so it's time for Bill's annual incorrect predictions!  As always, I take no responsibilities for any bets that are lost as a result of reading these.

AFC East
Patriots
Bills
Jets
Dolphins

AFC North
Steelers
Ravens
Bengals
Browns

AFC South
Texans
Titans
Jaguars
Colts

AFC West
Chiefs
Broncos
Chargers
Raiders

NFC East
Giants
Eagles
Redskins
Cowboys

NFC North
Packers
Bears
Vikings
Lions

NFC South
Falcons
Saints
Panthers
Buccaneers

NFC West
49ers
Seahawks
Cardinals
Rams

Playoffs - First Round
Ravens over Chiefs
Texans over Broncos
Falcons over Bears
Eagles over Giants

Playoffs - Second Round
Steelers over Texans
Patriots over Ravens
49ers over Eagles:
Falcons over Packers

Conference Championship Games
Steelers over Patriots
49ers over Falcons

Super Bowl
Steelers 31, 49ers 17

MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Rookie of the Year: Robert Griffin III

Please note: the above are based more on guesses and wishful thinking than on facts or research.  When in doubt, I went with the teams I like better.  Enjoy the games!